BRIEF ON IRAN No. 200 Thursday, June 29, 1995 Representative Office of The National Council of Resistance of Iran 3421 M Street NW #1032 Washington, DC 20007 Revolutionary Disintegration, Time, June 26 How potent is Iran's variety of militant political Islam? To Bill Clinton and Warren Christopher, it is one of the most dangerous forces on earth... But however real the threat from Tehran may be, one factor is not widely understood: the revolution is decaying. Iran is already severely undermining itself. The schism between a diminishing core of loyal revolutionaries and the rest of Iranian society is growing... Corruption permeates Iranian society. Nothing can be accomplished in Tehran--from booking an airline seat to sending a fax abroad to extracting goods from customs--without paying a bribe... Tehran newspapers have reported the arrest of dozens of bank officials, oil company executives, provincial mayors--even a member of parliament-- on charges of bribe taking and embezzlement... In just five years, Iran has accumulated nearly $40 billion in foreign debt. Prices for staple items have doubled or tripled so far this year. Sixteen years after the revolution, the average per capita income is just a quarter of what it was in 1979. How does the world's fourth largest oil-producing nation, with the second largest gas reserves, drive its economy into the ground?... From 1990 until 1993 the central bank depleted reserves by selling dollars for rials to government companies, ministries and the powerful, autonomous Islamic foundations at just 5% of the dollar's real cost.... America's actions have added to the economic problems. When Clinton announced the embargo on April 30, the rial collapsed... ... For all that, Iran is still a much less fervid, single-minded country than it was under Khomeini. Suffering as it does from a discredited ideology, unbridled corruption and a ruined economy, it most nearly resembles the Soviet Union in its last years... Moreover, Iran is threatened by the pull of Western culture and democracy. Iranians crave the prosperity they see in the West-- but especially the West's freedom to think, live and speak as they wish. Iran Paper Critical of New Export Trade Laws, Reuters, June 28 ... The criticism of the trade laws, which were introduced in May to stop a slide in the value of the local rial against the dollar and build up the government's hard currency reserves, was made in an editorial in the English-language Iran News. "Constant change in rules and regulations and the distrust they engender are among the worst economic plagues," the official news agency IRNA quoted the paper as saying... Mullahs' Future, Voice of America, International Focus, June 28 In May, the United States imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic, banning all U.S. trade with and investment in Iran... It was the product of a pattern of worrisome behavior, said one official. In issuing the sanctions order, the Clinton administration cited Iran's support for international terrorism, its attempts to undermine the Middle East peace process, and its efforts to obtain materials and assistance critical to the development of nuclear weapons... ... Michael Eisenstadt is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy... Michael Eisenstadt: "... from the point of view of a country which sees the U.S. as the 'Great Satan,' as a potential future adversary, they look at the Gulf war, the war involving the U.S. and Iraq and they saw that the U.S. was not deterred, even though Iraq had chemical and possibly biological weapons, it didn't stop us from rolling back Iraqi aggression. And they came to the conclusion, probably, that if you wanted to deter the U.S., you need to have a nuclear capability... Iran's credit worthiness is going to decline even further. It will be harder for them to get foreign credit as a result. And, I think, perhaps more Iranians are going to invest their money overseas rather than in their own country. Again, the fact that it looks like tension between the U.S. and Iran are increasing, perhaps makes Iran a less desirable place for them to invest their money. It's very hard to measure the potential impact, but I say it will impact on the Iranian economy at a crucial time when the regime is facing growing opposition. It's control over the periphery of the country is declining..." Some members of the U.S. legislature believe Iran continues to be a serious threat to American security interests. Congressman Dan Burton is one of them. He advocates support for the opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, or the Mojahedin, as they are more generally known. Congressman Dan Burton: "Iran continues to brutally repress its own people, subvert its neighbors and other countries in the region, export Islamic terrorism and fundamentalism, actively work against the mideast peace process, stockpile weapons of mass destruction, including the attempt to build a nuclear capability. We call on the administration to hold a sincere dialogue with the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the democratic opposition in that country." More than 200 members of Congress recently signed a letter to the President asking for cooperation with the Mojahedin...