BRIEF  ON  IRAN
No. 200
Thursday, June 29, 1995

Representative Office of
The National Council of Resistance of Iran
3421 M Street NW #1032
Washington, DC 20007


Revolutionary Disintegration, Time, June 26

        How potent is Iran's variety of militant political Islam? To Bill
Clinton and Warren Christopher, it is one of the most dangerous
forces on earth...
        But however real the threat from Tehran may be, one factor is
not widely understood: the revolution is decaying. Iran is already
severely undermining itself. The schism between a diminishing core
of loyal revolutionaries and the rest of Iranian society is growing...
        Corruption permeates Iranian society. Nothing can be
accomplished in Tehran--from booking an airline seat to sending a
fax abroad to extracting goods from customs--without paying a
bribe... Tehran newspapers have reported the arrest of dozens of
bank officials, oil company executives, provincial mayors--even a
member of parliament-- on charges of bribe taking and
embezzlement...  In just five years, Iran has accumulated nearly $40
billion in foreign debt. Prices for staple items have doubled or tripled
so far this year. Sixteen years after the revolution, the average per
capita income is just a quarter of what it was in 1979. How does the
world's fourth largest oil-producing nation, with the second largest
gas reserves, drive its economy into the ground?... From 1990 until
1993 the central bank depleted reserves by selling dollars for rials to
government companies, ministries and the powerful, autonomous
Islamic foundations at just 5% of the dollar's real cost....
        America's actions have added to the economic problems. When
Clinton announced the embargo on April 30, the rial collapsed...
        ... For all that, Iran is still a much less fervid, single-minded
country than it was under Khomeini. Suffering as it does from a
discredited ideology, unbridled corruption and a ruined economy, it
most nearly resembles the Soviet Union in its last years...  Moreover,
Iran is threatened by the pull of Western culture and democracy.
Iranians crave the prosperity they see in the West-- but especially
the West's freedom to think, live and speak as they wish.


Iran Paper Critical of New Export Trade Laws, Reuters, June 28

        ... The criticism of the trade laws, which were introduced in
May to stop a slide in the value of the local rial against the dollar and
build up the government's hard currency reserves, was made in an
editorial in the English-language Iran News.
        "Constant change in rules and regulations and the distrust they
engender are among the worst economic plagues," the official news
agency IRNA quoted the paper as saying...


Mullahs' Future, Voice of America, International Focus, June 28

        In May, the United States imposed comprehensive economic
sanctions on the Islamic Republic, banning all U.S. trade with and
investment in Iran... It was the product of a pattern of worrisome
behavior, said one official. In issuing the sanctions order, the Clinton
administration cited Iran's support for international terrorism, its
attempts to undermine the Middle East peace process, and its efforts
to obtain materials and assistance critical to the development of
nuclear weapons...
        ...  Michael Eisenstadt is with the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy...
        Michael Eisenstadt: "... from the point of view of a country
which sees the U.S. as the 'Great Satan,' as a potential future
adversary, they look at the Gulf war, the war involving the U.S. and
Iraq and they saw that the U.S. was not deterred, even though Iraq
had chemical and possibly biological weapons, it didn't stop us from
rolling back Iraqi aggression. And they came to the conclusion,
probably, that if you wanted to deter the U.S., you need to have a
nuclear capability...
        Iran's credit worthiness is going to decline even further. It will
be harder for them to get foreign credit as a result. And, I think,
perhaps more Iranians are going to invest their money overseas
rather than in their own country. Again, the fact that it looks like
tension between the U.S. and Iran are increasing, perhaps makes
Iran a less desirable place for them to invest their money. It's very
hard to measure the potential impact, but I say it will impact on the
Iranian economy at a crucial time when the regime is facing growing
opposition. It's control over the periphery of the country is
declining..."
        Some members of the U.S. legislature believe Iran continues to
be a serious threat to American security interests. Congressman Dan
Burton is one of them. He advocates support for the opposition group,
the National Council of Resistance of Iran, or the Mojahedin, as they
are more generally known.
        Congressman Dan Burton: "Iran continues to brutally repress its
own people, subvert its neighbors and other countries in the region,
export Islamic terrorism and fundamentalism, actively work against
the mideast peace process, stockpile weapons of mass destruction,
including the attempt to build a nuclear capability. We call on the
administration to hold a sincere dialogue with the National Council of
Resistance of Iran, the democratic opposition in that country."
        More than 200 members of Congress recently signed a letter to
the President asking for cooperation with the Mojahedin...