BRIEF ON IRAN No. 341 Friday, February 2, 1996 Representative Office of The National Council of Resistance of Iran 3421 M Street NW #1032 Washington, DC 20007 New Iranian Missiles Raise Gulf Arab Fears, Reuters, February 1 DUBAI - Iran has restored its capability to fire anti-ship missiles at sea, raising Gulf Arab fears of their neighbor's growing ability to control the world's largest oil-exporting shipping lane, analysts said on Thursday. "It is obvious that Iran is developing a capability to control shipping in the Gulf," said an Arab analyst of the waterway through which 15 million barrels of oil are exported every day.... "Iran now has an anti-ship capability at sea. This is the first such capability Iran has had at sea since 1988," a Western officer said of growing concern in Washington and the Gulf.... Military sources in the region could not say how many of the radar-guided missiles, with a range of 60 miles (95 km), Iran had but said Iran could mount them on Chinese-made Houdong patrol boats, freely moving them in and around the waterway. "Before you had to worry about missiles coming from one side on land, now it can come from any side," the Western officer said of Iran's latest seaborne ability. The Arab analyst said: "This is an offensive weapon aimed at gradually being able to control shipping while Gulf Arab states are purchasing defensive arms to counter Tehran's buildup."... ... Last March the United States said Iran had deployed Hawk missiles close to the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf's narrow and only entrance flanked by Iran and Oman. Tehran has other surface-to-air missiles deployed on its Gulf shores and strategic Gulf islands, Western military officers in the region say. Gulf Arab states and their Western allies are now watching to see when non-Arab Iran would deploy a third Russian-made Kilo-class submarine in the area. "The third submarine is due to be delivered to Iran this year," one officer said. Iran is the only regional state to deploy submarines in the area. "With three vessels Iran's submarine force has to be taken more seriously," said an Arab expert. "With two submarines, one is always in maintenance and the other is patrolling."... Bahrain Expels Iranian Diplomat, United Press International, February 1 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - Bahrain has ordered an Iranian diplomat out of the country, saying his activities were not compatible with his diplomatic function, official sources said Thursday.... The diplomat is believed to have been observed contacting members of Bahrain's Shiite opposition, whose activists have been battling public security forces since Jan. 17, when the government launched a crackdown against them.... While the opposition is homegrown and claims pro- democracy credentials, it has close links with fundamentalist Iran, home of the Shiite sect. The government suspects Iran of training and arming opposition activists, but did not have any proof until it apprehended three men who planted a powerful percussion bomb that shattered windows in Manama's biggest shopping mall on Dec. 31. They "confessed" in court to have received training and instruction in the Iranian holy city of Qom. Suspected Iranian involvement in Bahrain's opposition movement is causing concern in Riyadh and other Gulf capitals.... Strategically, it would mean Iran would have a key ally with the potential to threaten crude oil exports from eastern Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in addition to Iran's own position overlooking the Straits of Hormuz. Israel Expels Mullahs' Spy to Jordan, Reuters, February 1 Israel planned to expel to Jordan on Thursday a Palestinian arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran, security sources said. The security sources said the alleged spy holds Jordanian citizenship and was taken on Thursday to the Allenby bridge crossing between the West Bank and Jordan for expulsion to the kingdom. In Wednesday's announcement, the army said he had been recruited in Jordan by an Iranian embassy staff member and had also carried out "intelligence-gathering tasks" there....