BRIEF ON IRAN
        No. 341
        Friday, February 2, 1996


        Representative Office of
        The National Council of Resistance of Iran
        3421 M Street NW #1032
        Washington, DC 20007


New Iranian Missiles Raise Gulf Arab Fears, Reuters, February
1

DUBAI - Iran has restored its capability to fire anti-ship
missiles at sea, raising Gulf Arab fears of their neighbor's
growing ability to control the world's largest oil-exporting
shipping lane, analysts said on Thursday.
        "It is obvious that Iran is developing a capability to
control shipping in the Gulf," said an Arab analyst of the
waterway through which 15 million barrels of oil are exported
every day....
        "Iran now has an anti-ship capability at sea. This is the
first such capability Iran has had at sea since 1988," a Western
officer said of growing concern in Washington and the Gulf....
        Military sources in the region could not say how many of
the radar-guided missiles, with a range of 60 miles (95 km),
Iran had but said Iran could mount them on Chinese-made
Houdong patrol boats, freely moving them in and around the
waterway.
        "Before you had to worry about missiles coming from one
side on land, now it can come from any side," the Western
officer said of Iran's latest seaborne ability.
        The Arab analyst said: "This is an offensive weapon
aimed at gradually being able to control shipping while Gulf
Arab states are purchasing defensive arms to counter Tehran's
buildup."...
        ... Last March the United States said Iran had deployed
Hawk missiles close to the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf's narrow
and only entrance flanked by Iran and Oman.
        Tehran has other surface-to-air missiles deployed on its
Gulf shores and strategic Gulf islands, Western military officers
in the region say.
        Gulf Arab states and their Western allies are now
watching to see when non-Arab Iran would deploy a third
Russian-made Kilo-class submarine in the area.
        "The third submarine is due to be delivered to Iran this
year," one officer said. Iran is the only regional state to deploy
submarines in the area.
        "With three vessels Iran's submarine force has to be
taken more seriously," said an Arab expert. "With two
submarines, one is always in maintenance and the other is
patrolling."...


Bahrain Expels Iranian Diplomat, United Press International,
February 1

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - Bahrain has ordered an Iranian
diplomat out of the country, saying his activities were not
compatible with his diplomatic function, official sources said
Thursday....
        The diplomat is believed to have been observed
contacting members of Bahrain's Shiite opposition, whose
activists have been battling public security forces since Jan.
17, when the government launched a crackdown against
them....
        While the opposition is homegrown and claims pro-
democracy credentials, it has close links with fundamentalist
Iran, home of the Shiite sect.
        The government suspects Iran of training and arming
opposition activists, but did not have any proof until it
apprehended three men who planted a powerful percussion
bomb that shattered windows in Manama's biggest shopping
mall on Dec. 31.
        They "confessed" in court to have received training and
instruction in the Iranian holy city of Qom.
        Suspected Iranian involvement in Bahrain's opposition
movement is causing concern in Riyadh and other Gulf
capitals....
        Strategically, it would mean Iran would have a key ally
with the potential to threaten crude oil exports from eastern
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in addition to Iran's own position
overlooking the Straits of Hormuz.


Israel Expels Mullahs' Spy to Jordan, Reuters, February 1

Israel planned to expel to Jordan on Thursday a Palestinian
arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran, security sources said.
        The security sources said the alleged spy holds Jordanian
citizenship and was taken on Thursday to the Allenby bridge
crossing between the West Bank and Jordan for expulsion to
the kingdom.
        In Wednesday's announcement, the army said he had
been recruited in Jordan by an Iranian embassy staff member
and had also carried out "intelligence-gathering tasks" there....