BRIEF ON IRAN
        Representative Office of
        The National Council of Resistance of Iran
        No. 342 Monday, February 5, 1996



        3421 M Street NW #1032, Washington, DC 20007


Terror Threats in Riyadh, New York Times, February 2

        Americans in Saudi Arabia have been warned of
the threat of terrorist attacks aimed at them, State
Department officials said today.
        The warning originated with flashes of Islamic
fundamentalist anger detected in recent days by United
States intelligence agencies. Their sources included
promises of retribution for the recent terrorism
conviction of an Egyptian sheikh in a New York
courtroom; the reaction by Iran's leaders to reports of a
covert plan aimed at them by the United States, and
tensions between the Saudi Arabian government and its
internal enemies...
        There were other stirrings in the region today [Feb.
1]. Bahrain ordered an Iranian diplomat to leave the tiny
Persian Gulf nation for "activities unrelated to his
diplomatic work," a phrase that usually connects acts of
espionage or political troublemaking.
        United States officials said they suspected that
Iran, or anti-American groups and individuals it
supports, might be behind the rising fundamentalist rage
that has been reported....
        The Party of God issued a statement two weeks ago
in Tehran, The Iranian capital, "condemning recent U.S.
moves against the Islamic Republic of Iran." It said it
would "rub the nose of the United States in the dust of
degradation" and "crush its face with a firm blow."



FEATURE

Parliamentary Elections Aggravate Schism At The Top

        On Jan. 27, Rafsanjani and his cabinet met
Khamenei to find a solution to what Rafsanjani had
described as "a schism" in the ruling clique. The rift
became public on January 18 when 16 members of
Rafsanjani's cabinet signed a statement in support of
Rafsanjani. The statement in question, signed by 10 of
the 24 government ministers, called on the regime's
operatives to vote for candidates in the parliamentary
elections who would support Rafsanjani and his economic
policies.
        However, the most important ministers, including
the foreign, the intelligence, the interior and the oil
ministers, did not endorse the statement, indicating that
the cleavage caused by Rafsanjani in the so-called
Militant Clergy Association has backfired. Ressalat wrote
in this regard: "The most cohesive government after the
revolution suffered a split in ranks." A parliament
deputy echoed the same theme: "Within and without
Iran they say Rafsanjani's government has lost its
cohesiveness."
        The reason for issuing the statement in the first
place was that Rafsanjani had failed to include five
candidates of his choice in the 30-member slate fielded
by the militant clergy.
        The action enraged the rival faction. Two days
later, 150 parliament deputies published a letter lashing
out at Rafsanjani. Movahedi Savoji, an MP closely linked
with Khamenei, publicly warned Rafsanjani that they
may put "his incompetence" to vote and that they may
bring up an interpellation against the cabinet ministers.
        That less than half the ministers signed the
statement displays Rafsanjani's fragile standing. Since
the statement was made public and after warnings by
Khamenei, 10 signatories indicated that they were going
to withdraw their signatures.
        The recent rift however must be seen beyond a
split between Rafsanjani and his opponents. After
Khomeini's death, the warring factions have gradually
devoured each other. During the fourth Majlis elections
in 1991, a coalition consisting of pro-Rafsanjani and pro-
Khamenei currents purged the rival faction, the so-called
Imam's line, from the reigns of power. Not even one
member of that group was elected to the parliament.
This time, it appears that Khamenei's supporters are
trying to pull the rug from under Rafsanjani's feet. To
ensure the election of their faction's candidates, the
interior minister Besharati, a staunch pro-Khamenei
figure, has already replaced some 160 local and state
governors as well as other pro-Rafsanjani politicians
prompting a loud protest by the lame-duck president.
        But, Rafsanjani is not the only senior official having
problems. The regime's supreme leader Khamenei lacks
any religious authority among the traditional clergy.
During his much publicized visit to Qom, the seat of the
mullahs' power, he was shunned by all senior clergy who
teach in various Qom seminaries. A few weeks ago, his
most fervent promoter, mullah Ahmad Azari Qomi,
issued a 28-page letter, rejecting Khamenei's claims to be
the Marja' (the source of emulation). He also lambasted
Rafsanjani and blamed the Majlis for the multitudes of
acute problems confronting the regime.
        Whatever the outcome of the parliamentary
election farce,  nothing will change as far as the mullahs'
suppressive domestic and the aggressive foreign policies
are concerned. One thing is certain, however. The
election sham in March, as illegitimate as it is, will not
reverse the clerics' demise; it will only aggravate it.