BRIEF ON IRAN Representative Office of The National Council of Resistance of Iran No. 546 Monday, November 25, 1996 3421 M Street NW #1032, Washington, DC 20007 Protests at German Embassy, Reuters, November 24 ...Dozens of police in riot gear stood in three lines to guard the embassy and prevent several hundred workers chanting "Death to Fascists" from holding demonstrations, but they were allowed to march past the mission in central Tehran.... Another march by several hundred members of the hardline Islamic Ansar-e Hizbollah (Supporters of the Party of God) group was steered away before they could reach the embassy. They chanted "Germany is the servant of Zionists," "Death to Israel" and "Death to America" and carried a banner saying "We condemn the insults of the German prosecutor."... UAE Minister Says Iran A Threat to Region States, Reuters, November 23 ...[United Arab Emirates' Foreign Minister Rashid Abdullah] Al-Nuaimi said Iran has deployed offensive weapons at three Gulf islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, the center of a territorial dispute between the UAE and non-Arab neighboring Iran. "As long as there are states in the region with greed, flexing their muscles, and using maneuvers and threats, there will be no trust nor any cooperation," he said.... Al-Nuaimi's statement was a rare public accusation by the UAE to Iran as a threat to the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.... GCC states have expressed their concern over Iran's rearmament program, including the deployment of submarines and missiles.... Missile-Launching Vessels in Iran's War Games, Reuters, November 24 Iranian frogmen carried out helicopter operations and troops took part in defense against chemical bombardment in war games in the Gulf, the Islamic republic's official news agency IRNA reported on Sunday.... Iran launched 10 days of war games in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman on Thursday involving more than 100 ships including destroyers, gunboats, hovercraft, supply ships and submarines supported by 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.... IRNA quoted...Rear-Admiral Ashkbous Danekar as saying the second stage of the exercises would be launched on Sunday.... Peykan missile-launching vessels would move towards the determined operational zones, he added.... Overview Economic Circumstances In Today's Iran Despite positive evaluation by government officials regarding the country's economy and its future outlook, economic analysts believe otherwise and despite lack of freedom for expressing their views, a small picture of the economic crisis in Iran is occasionally displayed by their writings. Following are excerpts from an article by Dr. Karbassian published in the summer edition of Weekly Gozaresh. ...There is a tremendous contradiction in the heart of Iran's economy. On one hand, the government needs activation of the private sector and job-creators in order to buy government's factories that are in red, since the increasing inflation due to government's management and ownership of factories has reached a dangerous state. And on the other hand, ...the same job- creators who are expected to save the economy, are being targets of threats and affront. This is a dangerous contradiction and a factor in the fall of economy's quality and security in Iran. ...Economic growth and development is not achievable without securing a desirable level and an acceptable quality of economic security. If in the early days of the revolution billions of dollars and thousands of managers left the country due to social changes, that was understandable. But, the continuation of the exodus of capital and the brain trust 17 years later, is not excusable and acceptable; exodus of financial and human capital which result in the fall of the majority of indices of macroeconomy which eventually can be seen in the lowering of people's quality of life. Under the current circumstances with debts in the order of $45 billion and a severe lack of foreign currency when government's policies are unknown, the necessity for creating economic security is felt more and more.... A long period of time should pass until the fatal effects of government's incompetent interventions —dragging thousands of people under the poverty line in very short time— can be forgotten and affairs return to their normal routine. While most of the per-capita indices, such as national production, annual income, new investments, hard-currency revenue, and others are declining in Iran's economy, the need for elevation of the economy's quality of security is felt more than ever.... The people are now aware of the government's huge debts to other countries and the American sanctions against Iran. However, they feel with their bone and flesh the decrease in the real value of their wages, salaries and savings and do not consider it excusable.